Portfolio Performance
Overall, we are happy with the performance of the portfolio which returned more than 6% in 2007, handily beating the 4% annual target return and in line with estimated, model performance. Our performance versus the benchmarks was also good, beating most standard indexes and some well regarded peers. 2007 was a challenging year, requiring several changes to our asset allocation. The increase in volatility, several sharp drops in both fixed income and equity markets and subsequent market rallys required careful re-positioning of the portfolio.
Asset Allocation
We made some shifts in the Asset Allocation over the past year;
- decreasing exposure to US REITs (ICF) at the end of the 1st Quarter
- increasing exposure to International Equity (EFA) at the end of the 1st Quarter and in the 3rd Quarter
- decreasing exposure to High Yield Bonds (SPHIX) in the 1st Quarter and the remainder at the beginning of July
- increasing exposure to higher quality in the Lehman Bond Aggregate (AGG) in the 1st Quarter
- increasing exposure to MidCap Growth stocks (IWP)
- decreasing exposure to US Equity Value (DVY) in the 3rd Quarter and (IWD) in the 4th Quarter
- increasing exposure to US Equity Growth (IWF/SPY) in the 4th Quarter
We were fortunate to anticipate the erosion in both REITs and High Yield Bond investments early in the year. Our over-weights in US MidCap Growth, International and Emerging equities were profitable for the entire year. Our exposure to Inflation Protected Treasuries (TIP) and shorter duration Treasuries (SHY) finally payed off and helped the portfolio performance in a difficult period. As well, our large cash balance and the excellent risk free return to cash in 2007 dampened portfolio volatility.
On the flip side, we were late in the shift from Value to Growth, only recognizing the rotation in the 4th Quarter and only just in time with the shift from smaller companies to larger companies.
Outlook
2008 looks to be another challenging year. A recession in the US is possible, although the global economy may fair better, at least initially. We do expect that Emerging markets will end their long run-up sometime in the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2008 and we will trim our exposure accordingly. As well, we expect returns to cash to diminish. Investors may have to contend with both diminished returns and increased volatility in equity, fixed income and commodity markets; as the month of January has shown.
We are comfortable with the current asset allocation and will use some of the excess cash to position the portfolio for a return to growth late in 2008 and into 2009.