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Allocation change – sell US Small Cap

Wednesday, September 15th, 2010

We announced an allocation change, getting more defensive and raising 7%-10% cash. After the recent run up in equities, the uncertain environment going forward and the lackluster economic recovery; US Small Cap Equity and the tilt towards small cap value has been removed.

Our technical and macro-economic models indicate better opportunities are available than US Small Cap, although valuations for these asset classes remain reasonable compared to historic valuations.

The change is to sell all positions in US Equity Small Cap (IJR) and US Equity Small Cap Value (IWN) and move the proceeds to Cash (SHV). Any positions can be changed using VWAP trades or trader discretion.

We expect to use the proceeds for a more substantial allocation change in the next few weeks, once third quarter reporting begins.

Summit Alliance to offer Scientific Advisors’ Asset Allocation Portfolios

Monday, July 12th, 2010

Summit Alliance Capital Management LLC, a Dallas Texas money manager with more than $800M in assets under management, is offering Scientific Advisors’ asset allocation model portfolios through their network of brokers, registered investment advisors and wealth managers.

“This gives us a presence in the rapidly growing asset management business in the South. We look forward to providing Summit Alliance with institutional quality portfolio management through our Dynamic Asset Allocation products.” founder and CIO Stephen Harrington explained.

For more information about Summit Alliance Capital Management visit their website at sa-cm.com.

Cedar Rock Investment Advisors offers Scientific Advisors, LLC Asset Allocation Products

Monday, June 28th, 2010

We are pleased to announce that Cedar Rock Investment Advisors, a fast growing Registered Investment Adviser, has chosen Scientific Advisors’ suite of asset allocation investment products to offer to their clients.

Catherine Ryan, CFA of Cedar Rock is a Registered Investment Advisor with over 10 years of experience as a professional money manager. She has earned the right to use the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and appreciates the emphasis the ICFA places on ethics and professionalism. Integrity is the hallmark of the Cedar Rock enterprise.

For more information on Cedar Rock Investment Advisors, contact: Catherine Ryan (Catherine.Ryan@CedarRockInvestments.com) or visit their website at cedarrockinvestments.com.

Allocation change

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

We have made allocation changes to our model portfolios, reducing exposure to equities and increasing exposure to cash for the near term. Given the historic, day to day changes in volatility, take extreme care in implementing these recommendations. Once volatility has decreased, we will be incorporating additional portfolio changes to reflect the new environment going forward.

All allocation changes will be reflected to registered users of the site with a lag, only clients will have access to the most up to date asset allocations. Contact us today to sign up for these important changes and to get the latest advice on a timely basis.

Hedged Portfolio

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

We have added a Hedged Portfolio to the list of products that we offer.

The hedged portfolio employs similar tilts as the Growth Portfolio with some innovations.

  • Core allocations are not used, so the neutral allocation would be 0% equities and 0% fixed income instead of the 60% equities, 40% fixed income neutral allocation in the Growth Portfolio.
  • Market and Interest Rate risk are hedged using leveraged inverse ETFs.
  • The portfolio generally maintains little or no cash balance.

The Hedged Portfolio is not suitable for all investors and you should consult with your broker or financial planner before investing.

Mass State Pension – PRIT

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010

Many public pensions make their asset allocations available; although not as timely or as transparent as some might wish.

We have been collecting these allocations over the past decade and over the next few months we will highlight some of these and make them available to our clients in our modeling tools.

Today, let’s talk about the Massachusetts State Pension Plan, also known as the Pension Reserves Investment Trust (PRIT). PRIT has been fairly proactive in providing information about their investment decisions and are mostly transparent in their allocation weights.

The source material for the current PRIT allocation can be found at the Mass State Pension website.

This $40B+ fund describes their core, long-term allocation, set in April, 2006 as:

  • 27% Domestic Equity
  • 20% International Equity
  •   5% Emerging Markets
  • 13% Core Fixed Income, TIPS & Commodities
  •   6% Value-Added Fixed Income
  •   9% Private Equity
  • 11% Real Estate
  •   4% Timber / Natural Resources
  •   5% Hedge Funds

As the source document shows, these allocations change over time, due to investment gains and losses, suitable investments and shifts applied as managers are hired and terminated.

We can assign market proxies to the asset classes designated by the PRIT board to most of the asset classes defined. For example:

  • 27% IWV – Domestic Equity
  • 20% EFA – International Equity
  •   5% EEM – Emerging Markets
  • 13% AGG/TIP/GSG – Core Fixed Income, TIPS & Commodities
  •   6% WIP/SPHIX – Value-Added Fixed Income
  •   9% BX – Private Equity
  • 11% ICF – Real Estate
  •   4% WOOD – Timber / Natural Resources
  •   5% Hedge Funds

A rough pass does miss the Hedge Fund investments. As well, the Core Fixed Income, TIPS & Commodities at 13% is not well defined; how much in TIPs? How much in Core Fixed Income?

One note about public pensions is the mix of Fixed Income and Commodities in the same asset class. All of our research indicates that these two assets, Fixed Income and Commodities, are poorly correlated. This classification is not unique to the PRIT and perhaps someone can comment on the reasoning behind it for public pensions.

Digging down deeper, we can identify the managers used by PRIT and use a greater level of detail in the asset classes. As well, we can use the actual, December 31, 2009 allocated weights in place of the target weights coming up with something like this:

  • 26.0% Domestic Equity IWV
  • 21.4% International Equity EFA
  •  5.8% Emerging Markets EEM
  • 12.2% Fixed Income, TIPS & Commodities
    • 16% AGG
    • 51% PTTRX
    • 20% TIP
    • 13% GSG
  •  6.5% Value-Added Fixed Income
    • 43% High Yield SPHIX
    • 41% Emerging Market Debt GMCDX
    • 15% Distressed
  •  9.5% Alternative Investments BX
  •  9.5% Real Estate
    • 29% RRRAX
    • 22% SLDAX
    • 13% JPRCX
    • 36% ICF
  • 4.1% Timber WOOD
  • 5.0% Hedge Funds
    • 40% Equity L/S BRMIX
    • 30% Relative Value CVSIX
    • 20% Event Driven MERFX
    • 10% Global Macro

We still have some missing public assets, so we will assume market exposure. As well, there are more than 50 Private equity investments listed in the source document, but we use just one, Blackstone (BX) as our proxy.

We then use the historic allocations for the PRIT to get a more accurate historic portfolio, instead of merely using the current allocations. This was accomplished the easy way, by using the wayback machine to query the historic web pages from PRIT.

All of the historic allocations have been loaded into our allocation tool. We do have some holes in our allocations and will fill these in as time and source documents become available.

Matching returns and historic allocation weights together allows us to perform a historic simulation of the PRIT. We compare the reported returns, listed below with our simulation and note the very good agreement.

This little exercise, which took about an hour to gather the source documents, load the historic allocations and use our tools to create a realistic backtest shows that we can have similar performance using just market instruments.

US Small Cap Value Vs Gold

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

On January 19, we recommended selling Gold (GLD) and buying US Small Cap Value (IWN). How well has this recommendation worked out?

Using our simulation tool, this type of question is easy to answer.

US Small Cap Value has outperformed Gold (and most other assets) from January 19, 2010 through March 31, 2010 by almost 10%; see IWN Vs GLD, and almost 15% through today (April 23).

Small Cap Value leads the way out of recession because the market rewards companies that grow their earnings and smaller companies are more likely, on a percentage basis, to grow their earnings. In addition, monetary policy is generally accommodative (low rates) during a recession and until employment picks up again. US Small Cap Value companies are dominated by financials, which get an earnings boost from low rates, and by REITS, with attractive dividend yields to investors seeking cash flow.

During the previous recession ending in 2003, US Small Cap Value outperformed the S&P 500 by almost 40% over a two year period. This is an example of a tilt that adds value to our Dynamic Asset Allocation portfolios.

Asset & Financial Planning Agreement

Tuesday, April 6th, 2010

We are pleased to announce that Asset & Financial Planning, Ltd part of the Gilman & Ciocia group has a sub-advisory agreement with Scientific Advisors’ offering our Dynamic Asset Allocation products to their clients, including Mutual Inc.

Welcome!

Stavros Iatridis joins Scientific Advisors Investment Committee as an Adviser

Thursday, April 1st, 2010

We welcome Stavros Iatridis to Scientific Advisors as a member of the Investment Review Committee. Stavros brings a wealth of experience in global asset allocation, commodities, alternative assets and strong fundamental research capabilities to our team; read his biography for complete details of his impressive career.

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